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September 11, 2019
We took a large delivery of sandbags here at Octane HQ last week, the day after Boris said he would rather be dead in a ditch than not take us out of the EU on Halloween. Our feeling is this isn’t going to end well.
Even Matt Smith was spotted with his sleeves rolled up, building up the Brexit barricades. After all, there’s now only 50 days or so until the UK economy collapses, property prices slump by 30%, lenders shut up shop and the world as we know it ends.
Which, of course, is absolute nonsense.
Whatever happens at the end of next month, whether we leave with no deal and fighting talk, kiss and make up, get a bit of a deal or arrange another extension, to give us more time to achieve nothing whatsoever, I’m confident that the UK economy and property market will ride this one out.
As ever-present as Brexit is, on the airwaves, in the papers and online, it poses nowhere near the threat that the Global Financial Crisis did back in 2007-2009. In 2019, the UK needs to negotiate a new political and economic future with the EU; back in 2008, by contrast, the whole global banking system was on the verge of collapse.
It’s not even as if we’re entering the Brexit endgame on the back foot economically. Only this week the Office for National Statistics revealed employment remains at an all-time high and wages are growing at their fastest level for a decade.
Similarly, last week the Halifax August house price index showed yet again that the market is holding firm. Property prices are hardly buoyant, but neither are they falling. The market is simply ticking along, powered by phenomenally competitive mortgage rates and low supply.
And while our politicians reach new levels of hysteria, we shouldn’t lose sight of the age-old truth that somehow businesses will find a way to do business and make money.
In short, whatever happens in the next few months, even with an ugly Brexit and all manner of buffoonish antics in Westminster and Brussels, it’s in the interest of businesses in both the UK and Europe to find a way. And I’m confident they will.
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