Chat to a team member

Blog

UK economy a mirror image of its property market

Jonathan Samuels Jonathan Samuels
Posted on Jan 26, 2018 | in Blog

The preliminary estimate for economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2017 emerged this morning.

It showed the economy grew by 0.5% between October and December of last year - far from booming but better than the 0.4% most economists expected.

In short, it's steady as she goes for UK plc rather than spectacular. In this sense, the UK economy is a mirror image of the property market - just muddling through.

It's hard to draw any real conclusions on the back of this latest GDP data. In the shadow of ongoing Brexit uncertainty and stubbornly high inflation, there's enough growth to not panic but not enough growth to generate confidence.

It's also hard to know to what extent the UK economy is being driven by its own internal strength or the broader global recovery.

Two concerns are the continued reliance on the services sector and the poor performance of construction, which contracted by 1% - its weakest quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2012.

The extent of the construction sector's decline is surprising. Yes, this is a sector that's very sensitive to confidence but at the same time there is a lot of activity at present as developers set out to reduce the supply deficit. It's a bit of an enigma.

All in all, you suspect the economy will plod along in much the same fashion during the course of 2018. Until there is greater clarity on the outcome of Brexit negotiations, a lot of businesses and consumers will sit tight.

The economy needs a spark but in a climate of deep caution it's hard to see where it will come from.

And yet that's not to say we should view this data as poor overall. After all, many predicted Brexit would hole the economy under the waterline — and, to date, that simply hasn't happened.

The economy may be down but it's definitely not out.

More in this section

Mark Posniak

Four years old, flat out and having fun

Feb 24, 2021 | Blog

I can’t believe that this week we celebrated our fourth birthday,…

Mark Posniak
Mark
READ MORE

Specialist lending flies over the cuckoo’s nest

Feb 11, 2021 | Blog

If the closing stages of 2020 were crazy, the start to 2021 has…

Mark Posniak
Mark
READ MORE

Redemptions milestone amid pandemic my proudest moment yet

Jan 15, 2021 | Blog

Over the years the team here at Octane has achieved many great…

Matt Smith
Matt
READ MORE
Sections
Archive
Twitter
Follow us @octanecapital

2 hours, 10 minutes ago
Delighted to have had the Octane Capital Ltd #BuyToLet #Products added to Iress The take up of our specialist… https://t.co/AutOOrgHdX

6 hours, 30 minutes ago
Special shout out to the official Bar Sponsor at next years #OctaneCapitalCup being held at Wembley (Goals) next Ma… https://t.co/ftsihUvsLE

6 hours, 55 minutes ago
Wow-what a lovely thing to read as I opened Linkedin today! Thanks so much Kim McGinley CeMAP & team VIBE Speciali… https://t.co/necK2A88T1

6 hours, 59 minutes ago
Love this - cant wait for next May Octane Capital Ltd #OctaneCapitalCup https://t.co/yYonb9UxFR

1 day, 1 hour ago
Amazing effort by Jamie Oxley here in ensuring that we hit a very tight deadline and saved a client his £30k deposi… https://t.co/Jn8FeXE7WB

1 day, 3 hours ago
Great to catch up with Business Moneyfacts Magazine today and showing them round the Octane Capital Ltd #3rdGen Off… https://t.co/jIu9KfOrBA